A newly published large-scale study — released on World Obesity Day 2025 — has revealed critical changes in the global retail food environment over the last 15 years, raising concerns about the impact on public health, particularly in low-and-middle-income countries.
The study, which analysed data from 97 countries between 2009 and 2023, has shown a significant shift toward a more corporate and digitalised food retail sector, with major implications for dietary patterns and the rising prevalence of obesity.
The study, published in Nature Food’s latest edition, examined key indicators of the retail food environment, including the density of chain and non-chain outlets, sales of unhealthy foods, and the rise of digital grocery shopping.
The findings are striking: the density of chain outlets, such as supermarkets and fast-food chains, increased by an average of 1.54% per year, while the percentage of grocery sales from these chain retailers grew by 1.11% annually and by 17.2% over the study period. Unhealthy food sales per capita increased by 0.31% annually and 4.9% over the period, with chain retailers contributing disproportionately to this rise. Additionally, the percentage of unhealthy food sales from chain retailers increased by 0.91% annually and 12.0% overall.
One of the most concerning trends is the rapid increase in unhealthy food sales per capita, with chain outlets contributing disproportionately to this rise. Chain retailers can leverage their corporate power to market and sell ultra-processed foods more aggressively than smaller, independent stores. This shift is correlated with rising rates of obesity, particularly in low-and-middle-income countries (LMICs) such as those in South Asia, where obesity prevalence has increased in parallel with the expansion of chain outlets and unhealthy food sales.
The study’s findings also highlight the role of digital grocery shopping, which has exploded in recent years, particularly in high-income countries (HICs) where infrastructure and internet access support this trend. From 2014 to 2023, per capita digital grocery sales increased by a staggering 325%, further altering the retail food landscape.
While some regions, such as North America, experienced a stabilisation in the density of chain outlets and unhealthy food sales, LMICs saw a much more rapid transformation. Countries in South Asia, in particular, showed the highest rates of increase in chain outlet density and unhealthy food sales, signalling a fast-paced transition to a more “modern” food retail environment.
This ongoing transition poses a major public health challenge. As chain outlets continue to outcompete traditional retailers, the food environment becomes increasingly homogenised, promoting the consumption of unhealthy and highly processed foods. This trend is closely linked to the rising prevalence of obesity, as the aggressive marketing and availability of these foods make them difficult for consumers to avoid.
Moreover, while chain outlets can provide benefits such as greater food safety and lower prices, they also contribute to the erosion of local food systems and social connections fostered by traditional markets. The public health implications of this shift are profound, not only in terms of increasing obesity but also in terms of food access.
The study calls for urgent action to address the public health risks posed by the changing retail food environment. It highlights that in countries where the transition to a corporate-dominated food system is still underway, there may be an opportunity to ensure that new food environments promote healthier diets. In countries where the shift is already well established, “retrofitting” the retail landscape to encourage healthier food choices will require coordinated efforts from policymakers, public health advocates, and retailers themselves.
The study’s lead author Dr Tailane Scapin, from the Centre of Research Excellence in Food Retail Environments for Health: Next Generation, said immediate action was needed to address the impact changing food environments were having in reshaping diets and health worldwide.
”The data underscores the importance of policies that promote access to healthy, affordable foods, while limiting the marketing and availability of unhealthy food products, especially in vulnerable regions.
”The research team encourages policymakers to prioritise the transformation of food systems to create healthier retail food environments that support improved dietary patterns and long-term public health outcomes. In addition, we seek to emphasise the critical need for global public health initiatives to closely monitor and regulate the food retail sector,” Dr Scapin said.
The publication on the study, titled Global food retail environments are increasingly dominated by large chains and linked to the rising prevalence of obesity, was released as part of a special issue on food environments and human health in the journal Nature Food.
An interactive dashboard that visualises the trends dynamically is now available, allowing users to discover how the data can inform tailored actions to create healthier retail food environments.
For more information
Read the journal article for details on the methods, full results and the researchers’ interpretation of the findings.
Visit our ‘Changes in retail food environments over time: A global perspective’ project page for background information and key statistics from the study.
Explore the interactive dashboard to visualise global retail food and obesity trends and compare countries, regions, and income groups
Read Dr Tailane Scapin’s article in The Conversation about the public health impact.
And find out more about the collaborative initiative between Deakin and UNICEF that inspired this study, and how it aims to create healthier food retail environments in East Asia and Pacific.
